The Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has released a new report showing how accurate they are of predicating state revenue.
In seven of the last fourteen years, the IFO has been within 2 percent of projecting the budget accurately. Four of those years, the IFO was within a half a percent of accurately predicating the budget.
During the three years of the Covid-19 pandemic (2019 to 2022) the office’s projections wildly swung. From over predicting 3.8 percent to underpredicting 10.4 percent and 12.9 percent the next two years.
The IFO says the over projection in nine of the eleven (none Covid years) is a result of a natural recession since 2011.
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